Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 26.659038 29.272511 32.147484 35.566739 39.551505 44.084852 49.684972
2025-07-27 22.636803 26.131604 30.282379 35.661653 42.581145 51.378956 63.754199
2025-08-03 19.794204 23.682043 28.565814 35.325768 44.744138 57.921841 78.836651
2025-08-10 17.748748 21.820432 27.161997 34.957133 46.570231 64.254668 95.733481
2025-08-17 16.325394 20.529401 26.250080 34.991029 48.824237 71.647583 117.283973
2025-08-24 15.077013 19.302848 25.224805 34.622586 50.280526 78.024606 139.991050
2025-08-31 14.057187 18.274128 24.334893 34.278313 51.633801 84.519567 166.596626
2025-09-07 13.194797 17.380921 23.531474 33.924955 52.851474 91.065305 197.763627
2025-09-14 12.487856 16.648513 22.886541 33.722772 54.271563 98.456431 237.408819
2025-09-21 11.806860 15.897886 22.135771 33.227738 55.011558 104.565760 279.197537
2025-09-28 11.599641 15.844927 22.478964 34.690809 59.986317 122.901043 393.007931
2025-10-05 11.090244 15.283720 21.937414 34.455868 61.295859 132.198781 484.924266
2025-10-12 10.653332 14.817908 21.532415 34.462574 63.243881 144.621558 630.639889
2025-10-19 10.334081 14.519434 21.387106 34.959298 66.487723 163.133144 901.173456
2025-10-26 9.935656 14.066617 20.936466 34.787435 68.066940 177.097186 1227.449340
2025-11-02 9.551645 13.614270 20.451167 34.485162 69.258353 190.590349 1695.585611
2025-11-09 9.250365 13.281359 20.153299 34.540580 71.441455 210.013797 2648.075978
2025-11-16 8.916206 12.874527 19.691203 34.187428 72.415590 225.072658 4061.874659
2025-11-23 8.609250 12.497935 19.259010 33.852635 73.387258 241.297276 6835.305244
2025-11-30 8.322570 12.141870 18.841714 33.506892 74.268222 258.254218 13189.530735
2025-12-07 8.073457 11.838625 18.504428 33.308815 75.586754 279.563564 37336.730811
2025-12-14 7.806001 11.491455 18.062583 32.822860 75.885703 295.271713 162470.069749
2025-12-21 7.774960 11.555672 18.414683 34.259482 83.054626 370.638369 NaN